2024 Is Do Or Die For The GOP
Republicans do not have a Plan B if they cannot seize power and end democracy.
The American right has always hated the idea of democracy. Throughout this country’s history, the angry white men of the right have used violence and oppression to snuff out freedom and seize political power wherever possible. The Civil War. Widespread racial terrorism. A full embrace of Hitler and fascism. Jim Crow. The “War on Drugs.” The “War on Terror.” The militia movement. QAnon. January 6th. The list is endless.
But the ability to seize political power is rapidly slipping away from the angry white men of the American right. 2024 is do or die for the GOP, which explains why this is already the ugliest election in decades and it’s only going to get uglier.
It’s All About Trump
Republicans built a machine that produced nothing but monsters and then an apex predator with a broken brain popped out and seized control of the monster factory. Whoops.
Trump was not interested in the Republican Party’s goals. He was interested in Trump and reshaped the party in his own image. Now, the GOP is Trump and will not survive without him.
Oh, don’t get me wrong. It’s not like the the entire Republican apparatus will pack up and go home if Trump were to die tomorrow of a McDonald’s-induced coronary. But without Trump controlling the party, it will take years for them to rebuild and they do not have that kind of time.
Here’s the problem: A very large chunk of the Republican base has been conditioned by decades of hate speech from Fox, AM hate radio, and white nationalist websites to be mindless and vile. Previously, they were fine voting for Republicans who pandered to them. Republicans who didn’t really care about their grievances but said the right things on the campaign trail. Then Trump came along.
Now they know what it sounds like when a Republican leader really, truly hates like they do. They will not accept pandering again. Case in point: Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is, inarguably, evil. His record as governor of Florida is appalling. He has been far more effective at delivering the cruelty the base craves than Trump ever was.
But, and here’s the key point, DeSantis doesn’t really care about being evil and cruel. He does these things because it’s what the base wants, not because he actually hates the same people his voters hate.
You’d think it wouldn’t make a difference but it clearly does. Republican voters do not just want the results, they want the authentic hate from their leaders, as well. And that’s a problem for the GOP. The real monsters are all incompetent grifters. The competent leaders only pretend to be monsters.
Trump wasn’t at all a competent leader but he was such a monster it didn’t matter. That is not an easily repeatable phenomena. There is no one waiting in the wings to replace him. That’s assuming Trump ever shuts the fuck up and goes away in the first place. One imagines that even in prison, the Trump-hungry press will send reporters to interview him every other day.
Still, without Trump, the Republican Party has nothing. They have to win in 2024 and end free and fair elections because while Democrats have a deep bench of serious candidates lined up for 2028 (Harris, Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom, etc.), Republicans have…no one.
DeSantis has already shown he cannot connect with the base no matter how malicious his actions and rhetoric. Haley will not be able to sell her brand of pre-Trump Republicanism to MAGAland. Ramaswamy? He’ll probably have been arrested on sexual assault charges by then. He has that kind of vibe around him.
Who else do Republicans have? Tucker Carlson? Doubtful. Once he was fired by Fox, he faded into relative obscurity. It will be difficult to recapture the power he once had. Glenn Youngkin? He just got waxed in his own state. Good luck with that. Ted Cruz? LOL.
A 2028 loss means Republicans face losing the Supreme Court (Alito and Thomas will be 78 and 80 in 2028). While both men could refuse to retire while a Democrat is president, the Republican base will only shrink as relatively Republican-friendly Boomers and Gen X die to be supplanted in the electorate by Millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha. All of whom despise the GOP.
If 2028 is not looking good, 2032 looks even worse. Alito and Thomas could continue to refuse to retire, but the Grim Reaper won’t give a flying fuck when he comes to punch their ticket. I really look forward to that. I’ll be cracking open a beer or two that night. Enjoy hell, you miserable pricks.
Anyway, this cannot be stressed enough: Once Republicans lose control of the Supreme Court, they lose everything. This is why they stole the 2016 election. This is why they are trying to steal the 2024 election. They will absolutely try to steal the 2028 election but without Trump, that will be far more difficult.
2024 is do or die for the GOP. Our job is to make sure these evil fucks die.