I’ve written several hundred articles over the last decade and a half. So many that there is zero chance of me remembering all of them. That’s not the worst thing since most of them were from my early days at Addicting Info and they were less than polished. But even the couple of hundred I’ve written for The Daily Banter/The Banter since 2016 are too many for me to recall easily. Thus, when I reread some of them, even from just a few years ago, I am occasionally pleased and surprised to see how some of my predictions have panned out.
One of the things I try to do as a writer is look ahead at where we are going, not just at where we are. It’s good to know if I’m a ranting loon or if I’m reasonably on target. So let’s take a look!
So the premise of this article was that Republicans have had a game plan since Reagan and it was working for them. Cut taxes when in power and run up the deficit. Then, when Democrats were in charge, scream about the deficit and force them to cut public services.
The point of this was that Republicans despise public services. The government doing things to help people makes your average Republican physically ill. This is why they gleefully attack Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and fight tooth and nail against feeding hungry children. In the name of Jesus, of course.
By gutting the economy and leaving the mess for Democrats to deal with, Republicans could make themselves look like the good guys while making Democrats look like the bad guys.
Everyone who paid attention knew they were doing this, including the GOP’s most reliable accomplice, the press. But the press let Republicans lie about what they were doing for 40 years. The general public didn’t catch on because the press didn’t bother to inform them. Sound familiar?
But then something happened and I noticed it in 2021:
In 2017, Republicans passed their usual huge tax cut for the rich and then spent the rest of their time dismantling vital government programs. A less insane party might have reversed course, even if just temporarily, when Covid struck, but Republicans doubled down, depriving the country of the economic help it desperately needed.
The GOP instead doled out a trickle, giving more to the rich and just enough to allow the country to limp along without collapsing completely.
Republicans should have used Covid to shower the country with money. Aside from being sound economics, it would have been good politics. But they refused because…I dunno, fuck’em if they’re not rich? It does seem to be the Republican thought process.
The result was that the GOP deviated from their game plan. They hurt the economy but they didn’t cripple it like they were supposed to. Then they lost control of the government, allowing Democrats to do something they haven’t been able to do in decades: Invest in America.
I got that part 100% correct. Democrats poured money into the economy. But they did it smartly. Massive amounts of infrastructure spending created local jobs. Huge investments in manufacturing will create permanent jobs here in the US and protect our supply chain. Billions upon billions to upgrade long-neglected parts of the country, all of it spurring economic growth that will long outlast the original investment. You know, everything Republicans hate about the government.
Here’s the part I didn’t get quite right:
As Biden’s economy starts to take off, you’re going to increasingly hear this phrase: “Overheating (or overcooking) the economy.” The overly simplified idea is that if we peasants have too much money, we’ll do something stupid, like spend it. That will lead to inflation, when the prices for goods spiral out of control, and then we’ll all be poor again.
The funny thing about inflation is that it only seems to be a concern when a Democrat is president.
Russia had not yet launched its war on Ukraine and while the supply chain was a mess, it hadn’t become as snarled as it would by the end of 2021 going into 2022. That’s why inflation started to rise right as this article happily proclaiming inflation was a boogeyman went live.
In my defense, the press has, in fact, been overly focused on inflation as part of their campaign to undermine Biden’s economic success. It’s always important to remember how much the press uses Republican framing for absolutely everything. When it’s convenient, of course.
During the Trump years, the health of the stock market was the key metric for the press even as there were half a dozen or more flashing red lights. Now? The stock market keeps breaking new ground1 and the press can’t stop wondering why the public thinks Trump would be better for the economy.
I dunno? Maybe three straight years of the press falsely telling the public that Biden’s economy was the worst ever?
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Still, aside from the flub on inflation, I hit the nail on the head. Biden and the Democrats have been able to make a massive transformation to the economy. The labor movement is stronger than it has been in half a century. It’s been giving the right screaming fits because they can’t stop it. The Supreme Court would very much like to outlaw unions but even they can’t quite go that far. Not yet, anyway.
Wages are up. Unemployment has been under 4% for two full years, something that has not happened since the 1960s. The manufacturing boom is still coming since the factories are still being built. Wait until that hits the economy!
I’ve been saying this for a while: Thirty years from now, what Biden has done will either be the first chapter in economics books as an example of how to rebuild an economy after decades of sabotage and neglect. Or it will buried by economists owned by the Koch Foundation so no other president will think to try it again.
And we have Republican stupidity to thank for all of this. They forgot to salt the earth on their way out of power and the Democratic Santa Claus came back to town. Our job is to keep Joe Biden in office for another 4 years to get the job done and prevent Republicans from burning it all down out of spite.
There are 265 days until the 2024 election. Vote blue like your life depends on it.
Your constant reminder that the stock market is not a good indicator of economy health. But the press used to think it was. Now they don’t. One suspects that a week after Trump resumes office, the press will marvel at “his” incredible stock market gains. See how this game is played?