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Back in 2018, I was very concerned that Republicans would use violence to chase voters away from polling stations in minority communities in swing states.1 Or that they would attack the locations where ballots were being counted. I was concerned about this because Republicans are fucking fascists and they told us they were going to do it. An army of 50,000 “poll watchers” they said. An army to “protect the vote” AKA “rig the election.”
But that didn’t happen. Nothing happened and Republicans got their asses beat like a drum in the midterms.
In 2020, they promised the same thing and, again, nothing. In the weeks after, the election, Trump’s people attempted to organize a second “Brooks Brothers Riot” in Arizona but it was poorly planned and nothing came of it.
They tried to stage a coup on January 6th, of course, but that was months later. When ballots were being cast, very little happened.
Republicans again promised they would swarm the polls with aggressive watchdogs in 2022. They would for sure this time terrorize Black voters “protect the vote.” Come election day? Nothing. Nada. Zip.
I developed a working theory about this and I really have no way to prove it but it seems to fit the facts: Republicans lied to themselves so much that they were winning, they abandoned their plans to cheat until it was too late.
Here’s how it works:
I’m a Republican goon. Maybe ex-military. Maybe a current cop.2 I want to go to the polls and terrorize Black people by wearing a MAGA hat and a gun on my hip. I’ll tell people I’m there to make sure no one is “illegally voting” and aggressively question people I don't think should be voting. That would be everyone I think is voting for Democrats, i.e., minorities, women, college students, etc.
Now, I know this is illegal and I’m risking jail time but I’m a “patriot” and love my whiteness country. Besides, Emperor President Trump will 100% pardon me just like he promised to pardon all of the January 6th traitors heroes.
But if we’re winning like my beloved Fox News tells me and we’re so far ahead in the polls like Dear Leader says, why would I risk jail? Besides, Democrats are going to cheat and steal the election anyway so what’s the point? Also, Lord Trump didn’t pardon my brothers and sisters before he left office…
You get the idea.
The main point here is that all of the right-wing media, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, AM Hate Radio, 4Chan, Twitter, totally not owned by Russia Tiktokers and Youtubers, all say the same thing: We’re winning! Elected Republicans say it. Every poll pumped out by completely honest right-wing pollsters says it. Donald Trump says it so much he alternates between telling people this will be the last time they have to vote and don’t worry about voting because we’re winning by SO MUCH!
If every source of information you rely on tells you the same thing over and over and over again, why would you ever believe you have a chance of legitimately losing the election? More importantly, why would you risk prison to steal “protect” an election you’re already winning? Answer: You wouldn’t.
So…you don’t.
This is why I think the long-promised right-wing terrorism fails to materialize on election day. They lie themselves into complacency.
And they might be about to do it again.
These shit R polls drive D partisans nuts, and I understand that. It’s enraging to have Nate Silver wandering around social media insisting that the Harris campaign is collapsing when there is in fact no evidence that the Harris campaign is collapsing, or anything like it.
It’s worth realizing, though, that this kind of empty R boosterism driven by lousy R pollsters doesn’t actually help R candidates. Instead, it’s another instance of the way in which right wing media incentives and right-wing electoral incentives have diverged.
GOP pollsters want clicks and attention which they can convert to ad dollars. The inventives for them are to put out polls that show Rs winning.
Nate Silver gobbles these fake polls up like candy and then claims Trump has a 60+% chance of winning. Just ignore the fact that Harris is ahead in almost every single swing state, Trump’s numbers in Florida and Texas TEXAS are sagging,3 and every other giant red light on the Trump campaign dashboard is flashing.
There are 56 days until the 2024 election. Early voting starts sooner depending on your state. Check your registration and then vote as early as possible. Vote blue like your life depends on it. This is America. No kings. No weirdos. Vote Harris and Walz.
It should be noted that Nate Silver went so far down the aggrieved white boy rabbit hole after 2016, he was fired from his own website, 538.com. Since then, he’s become a political pundit with a really bad track record (should have stuck to the math, not the meth). Now he works for a site that bets on the outcome of the election, is paid millions by far-right fascist creep and weirdo Peter Thiel, and for sure would never EVER manipulate his data to make his sugar daddy more money or reach a predetermined outcome.4
So, everything is fine. Great, even! So much winning! Not even close! A red wave, baby! Just like 2022.
Well, we all remember how 2022 went for the GOP. The definition of madness is to keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Keep up the good work, guys!
Now, a word of caution for us here in the real world. It doesn’t matter if Team Evil is deluding itself. It doesn’t matter if everything is pointing towards a Harris win. We still have to act like we’re losing and push to get every single vote we can.
It’s not about complacency. It’s not about winning. It’s about winning BIG. We don’t need to defeat Trump, we need to utterly crush him and his party of fascists up and down the ballot in every state possible. Winning BIG means taking the White House, the House, the Senate, Governor’s mansions, state legislatures, school boards, mayorships, everything, everywhere.
We have to make it impossible for Republicans to overturn an overwhelming Harris victory or sneak by a stolen Senate seat. November needs to be a definitive slapdown of Republican fascism both to make their coup impossible and to give Democrats the power they need to finish the work Joe Biden and Kamala Harris started.5
Let the GOP kneecap itself and take full advantage of their stupidity.
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Not JUST swing states but primarily there.
ACAB
Don’t get too crazy about Florida and Texas. They’re essentially police states at this point. They won’t flip blue until the DoJ steps in and forces DeSantis and Abbott to hold free and fair elections. But Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are at risk and the fact that both states are trending less red this close to the election is a really bad sign for Trump.
Am I insinuating that Nate Silver is cooking his numbers? Not at all. I’m fucking saying it straight out. And so is he.
And end the cancer of the Reagan Revolution forever while crippling the GOP for the next 20-30 years.
Remember back in high school English class when the teacher introduced the term 'tragic flaw'? Once the Republican "leaders" began letting big corporate CEOs dictate what was important, guess who didn't matter anymore? EVERYONE ELSE. Then Republicans have a problem: They have to try to live a double life. Their day job is to try convincing ordinary people that Republicans listen to everyone's concerns and that they're working for "responsible government." Their real job? Doing just the opposite - and getting richer in the process.
Lord, I hope you’re right. I hope the MAGAts believe Trump’s words about not needing any more votes so that they decide to stay home. That would be perfect. DOJ should step in in Texas and Florida and a few other red states where they’re suppressing the voters to an outlandish degree. Republicans SUCK!! May they all rot in hell!