It's Gonna Get Ugly In Florida
Florida Republicans made a huge mistake and now they're going to burn the Sunshine State to the ground to fix it.
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Florida Republicans must have felt pretty smug when the state supreme court allowed their 6-week ban on abortion to go into effect. But the other rulings handed down at the same time have set Florida on a direct path to flipping blue in November. That can only mean one thing: Republicans are going to burn democracy to the ground to stop it.
A quick recap: I have a friend, Glenn, who once told me many many moons ago that the Supreme Court would never overturn Roe as long as Justice Kennedy was there. His theory, and it was a good one, was that Kennedy would always join the liberal justices to protect abortion. Not because he was pro-reproductive rights, but because he was a Republican.
You see, Kennedy, according to Glenn, understood what would happen if Republicans got what they’d been chasing for decades. The electoral backlash would utterly destroy the party. And so Kennedy would protect the party from itself. Roberts seems to have been trying to do the same but with a 6-3 majority, he couldn’t stop 5 extremists from fulfilling that long-dreamed-of goal of inflicting grievous harm on America’s women.
The result was exactly what Glenn predicted over a decade ago: Massive political backlash. Since the Dobbs decision, Republicans lost a midterm under a Democratic president. An historical aberration. They lost the off-year elections. They’ve lost most of the special elections. Every single time abortion has been on the ballot, Republicans have lost. Badly. Even in deep red states and despite Republicans doing everything possible to rig the election in their favor.
So now we turn to Florida. A 6-week abortion ban is enough to enrage and energize voters to punish Republicans. But enough to flip the state blue? Maybe not by itself. However, the state supreme court had a lapse of corruption and allowed an initiative to amend the state constitution in November to protect reproductive rights.
It hasn’t even been close regardless of the state when abortion is up for a direct vote. Bloodred Kansas, once the crown jewel of regressive Republican policies, slapped down an attempt to strip women of their rights, 59%-41%. What do you suppose is going to happen in Florida? Hint: Very bad things if you’re a Republican.
Just to add a little more gasoline to the situation, there will also be a ballot initiative for a constitutional amendment making marijuana legal.
So, to recap: In an election year, Florida Republicans have essentially made abortion impossible to get, thus pissing off women both left and right, young voters, minorities, and most everyone who isn’t a frothing religious psycho.
At the same time, there will be a way to directly punch Florida Republicans in the nose and take back the rights that were just stolen. Revenge is a strong motivator.
On top of that, weed will be on the ballot which will pull in even more young voters than abortion alone.
Oh, and Trump will be on the ballot, thus pulling even more voters to vote against him than, say, Nikki Haley.
It’s a perfect storm to flip Florida blue for the first time since 2012.
The response from DeSantis (remember Ron DeSantis?!) and his cronies in the Florida legislature will be…extreme. If there are less than a dozen laws passed between now and November restricting voting rights, I will be very surprised. How many polling locations will be eliminated in minority communities and college towns? They can’t remove them all but I’ll bet a shiny nickel they’re going to get as close to just one location as possible.
Expect broken machines, missing power cords, and an “accidental” lack of paper ballots. Anything to make it harder, if not impossible to vote.
Also, expect a new campaign to tout DeSantis’ Election Gestapo Police, whose sole function is to terrorize minorities and keep them away from the ballot. Don’t be surprised to see also a surge of Neo-Nazi activity in the state as election day nears. They know they’re protected in DeSantis’ Florida and that this election is crucial to their white nationalist future.
It’s really important to understand how fucked Trump will be if he loses Florida. Florida’s 30 electoral votes are the equivalent of Nevada (6), Arizona (11), and Wisconsin (10) combined plus three! If Biden wins Florida, he can lose Wisconsin and Michigan and still win with the other swing states. In other words, losing Florida would be a crippling blow to Trump and open up even more paths for Biden who already has a considerable number of paths.
My guess is that sometime in the next couple of weeks, the Biden campaign is going to announce a massive investment in Florida. Ads, offices, enormous get-out-the-vote drives, and more. They have the money and were already looking to expand the field to both run up the score as well as stretch Trump’s already meager resources to the breaking point.
That last bit is really important. The Trump campaign does not have the money to compete in the swing states already in play. Florida will be a massive drain they simply cannot afford. The RNC will be of no help since it’s being run by Trump cronies who are quite literally stealing most of the money being donated.1
The only way the GOP can hold on to the state is for DeSantis to rig the election outright. Now, he could be a salty little bitch and let Trump go down in flames. Personally, he’s earned the right. Trump is an asshole. However, as much as DeSantis despises Trump, he can’t let his state go blue. He still plans to run in 2028 and the entire premise of DeSantis is that he is the dictator the right is waiting for. If he can’t control his own state, that narrative goes poof. Just look at what happened to the presidential aspiration of Glenn Youngkin here in Virginia. He got walloped so hard (over abortion), that he slunk back to Richmond and all talk of him running in 2024 disappeared faster than a line of cocaine when Don Jr. enters the room.
Trump was already fighting an uphill battle and it just got a lot steeper. Nothing would give me greater pleasure to see him lose and flee the country because of his rancid decision to appoint Justices he knew would ban abortion. The irony would be the perfect end to his career as a bloated tick draining the life from our nation.
You MUST read this piece in The Status Kuo. You will not believe how much Trump is looting the RNC.
I don’t hold out too much hope that FL will actually turn the bluest of blue but abortion rights + weed = 💜
“the state supreme court had a lapse of corruption”
Well put.